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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater change with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.