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The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|